Statistical Theory
Cód:
491_9781443731324
STATISTICAL THEORY The Relationship of Probability Credibility and. Error by LANCELOT HOGBEN.CONTENTS: Foreword page 7 1 The Contemporary Crisis or the Uncertainties of Uncertain Inference 13 PART I. THE FOUNDING FATHERS 2 The Founding Fathers and the Natural History of Gambling 33 3 Randomness and the Relevance of the Rule 59 4 Division of the Stakes and the Lottery of Life and Death 83 5 The Backward Look and the Balance Sheet of Thomas Bayes no 6 The Place of Laplace and the Grand Climacteric of the Classical Tradition 133 PART II. THE CALCULUS OF ERROR AND THE CALCULUS OF EXPLORATION 7 The Normal Law comes into the Picture 159 8 The Method of Least Squares and the Concept of Point Estimation 182 9 Error, Variation and Natural Law 210 10 Stochastic Models for Simple Regression 232 11 The Impasse of Factor Analysis 257 PART III. THE CALCULUS OF AGGREGATES 12 Maxwell and the Urn of Mature 279 13 Mendelism and the Two Meanings of Probability 297 PART IV. THE CALCULUS OF JUDGMENTS 14 Statistical Prudence and Statistical Inference 319 1 5 Decision Indecision and Sample Economy 345 1 6 Induction and Design, Stochastic and Non-stochastic 370 1 7 Recipe and Rule in Stochastic Induction 399 1 8 The Confidence Controversy and the Fifth Canon 433 1 9 Epilogue 454 Appendix I 477 Appendix II 480 Appendix III 485 Appendix IV 7 Index 07. FOREWORD: THE USE of the word behaviourist in my sub-title calls for clarification. It came into current usage chiefly through the writings of J. B. Watson, in the first fine flush of enthusiasm following the reception of Pavlovs work on conditioned reflexes. Watson conveyed the impression that all forms of animal including human behaviour are ultimately explicable in terms of neural or humoral co-ordination of receptors and effectors. Neither this proposition nor its denial is susceptible of proof. A comet may destroy the earth before we have completed a research programme of such magnitude as the operative adverb ultimately suggests. Many yea
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